De recente financiële crisis en de rol van de euro: een toepassing op Ierland

Kevin Hellinckx
Persbericht

De recente financiële crisis en de rol van de euro: een toepassing op Ierland

“Van Keltische Tijger naar Europees zorgenkind”

Weinigen hadden de omvang van de globale financiële crisis kunnen voorspellen. Aangezien Ierland een kleine open economie is, zou zelfs met eender welk beleid de crisis sterk voelbaar zijn geweest. Toch is er meer aan de hand. Sinds 1999 maakt Ierland deel uit van de EMU. Dit heeft veel voordelen maar ook een belangrijk nadeel. Het betekent immers dat landen afhankelijk zijn van het monetair beleid van de ECB. Dit beleid is echter gericht op de eurozone als geheel terwijl de Ierse economische situatie sterk afwijkt van andere Europese landen. Uit onderzoek blijkt dan ook dat tussen 1999 en 2007, de Ierse rente 6,5% hoger had moeten zijn. Bovendien wordt aangetoond dat bij een alternatief rentebeleid huizenprijzen 25 tot 30 procent lager zouden zijn geweest. Bewijs dat de euro mee aan de basis lag van de Ierse vastgoedzeepbel betekent evenwel niet dat een soeverein monetair beleid de crisis met zekerheid zou hebben voorkomen. Bovendien hadden beleidsmakers andere beleidsinstrumenten ter beschikking voor het bijsturen van de economie. Het is dus maar al te eenvoudig om louter de euro met de vinger te wijzen al bleken institutionele tekortkomingen van de EMU ook tijdens de crisis niet bevorderlijk te zijn.

Ierland, ooit de Keltische Tijger genoemd omwille van zijn sterke economische groei sinds midden jaren 90, is terechtgekomen in een zware economische crisis en een daaropvolgende schuldencrisis. Het barsten van een vastgoedzeepbel bracht Ierse banken in financiële problemen. Dit leidde tot een bankencrisis en overheidstussenkomst met als gevolg een spectaculaire toename van de staatsschuld. Deze steeg van 24% van het BBP in 2007 naar meer dan 100% in 2012. De vraag is waarom net Ierland één van de landen is die het hardst getroffen werd. Hierbij blijft de rol van de euro niet onbesproken. De theorie van optimale muntzones wijst immers op een cruciaal gevolg namelijk de opgave van een soeverein monetair beleid. De Europese Centrale Bank voert een beleid voor de eurozone als geheel. Maar doordat macro-economische prestaties tussen eurolanden sterk verschillen, is dit een moeilijke opgave. Daarom werd wiskundig onderzocht in welke mate het one-size-fit-all beleid van de ECB, in de periode voorafgaande aan de crisis, afgestemd was op de noden van de Ierse economie.

Hiervoor werd een Taylor-regel opgesteld, een monetaire beleidsregel die beschrijft hoe de centrale bank de beleidsrente bepaalt naargelang de evolutie van inflatie en economische groei. De onderzoeksresultaten bevestigen dat het beleid van de ECB afgestemd is op het gemiddelde van de eurozone. Bovendien blijkt het beleid prijsstabiliserend en contracyclisch te zijn, zoals verwacht wordt van een goed monetair beleid. Dit betekent echter niet dat het rentebeleid voldeed aan de Ierse noden. Als gevolg van de divergente Ierse macro-economische situatie was de rente voor Ierland dan ook persistent te laag. Indien de ECB perfect rekening zou hebben gehouden met de Ierse gegevens had de beleidsrente tussen 1999 en 2007 ongeveer 6,7% hoger moeten zijn. Omdat de beleidsrente bepalend is voor de financieringskosten van banken terwijl 85% van de Ierse hypothecaire contracten vastgelegd zijn met variabele rente, heeft de officiële beleidsrente een grote invloed op Ierse hypothecaire rentevoeten. De analyse leidt voor diezelfde periode dan ook tot een optimale hypotheekrente van gemiddeld 9,9% tegenover een werkelijke van gemiddeld 4,65%. Het gevolg is dat vanaf 1999, de werkelijke en de gesimuleerde contrafeitelijke gemiddelde woningprijs van elkaar beginnen af te wijken. Midden 2007, net voor de vastgoedcrash, zouden Ierse huizenprijzen dan ook 25 tot 30 procent lager zijn geweest.

De gehele analyse bevestigt dat toetreding tot de EMU mee aan de basis lag van de crisis. Via stijgende huizenprijzen creëerde het immers een klimaat voor een niet-duurzame kredietexpansie en andere macro-economische onevenwichtigheden. Paradoxaal genoeg was uitzicht op lagere rentevoeten en kapitaalkosten een belangrijke reden om toe te treden tot de EMU.

Een eigen Iers monetair beleid garandeert evenwel niet dat er een optimaal rentebeleid zou zijn gevoerd. Bovendien waren er andere manieren om de economie te stabiliseren. Fiscaal en macro-prudentieel beleid zijn immers beleidsinstrumenten die, bij afwezigheid van het rente-instrument, de lokale economie hadden kunnen bijsturen. Maar ook de overheid en nationale financiële toezichthouders schoten te kort. De overheid had via afschaffing van aftrekbaarheid van hypothecaire rentes of niet-belastbaarheid van vastgoedeigendom de vorming van de vastgoedzeepbel wat kunnen tegengaan. Ook toezichthouders grepen niet in wanneer massaal leningen werden toegestaan waarbij 100% van de aankoopwaarde van een woning werd gefinancierd. Het gevolg is dat wanneer huizenprijzen daalden, er veel leningen waren waarbij de waarde van de woning lager was dan de uitstaande hypotheekschuld. Eurolidmaatschap lag dus niet alleen aan de basis van de crisis en toont dat een onvolmaakte muntunie vereist dat landen zichzelf de nodige discipline opleggen.

Maar ook tijdens de crisis bleken institutionele onvolmaaktheden van de EMU niet bevorderlijk te zijn. Een uitgebreide literatuurstudie leert dat afwezigheid van een federale unie een omgeving vormde waarin de bankencrisis zich persistent kon uitspreiden over de gehele eurozone. Bij afwezigheid van een politieke- en bankenunie werd er immers onvoldoende actie ondernomen om de neerwaartse spiraal tussen de financiële positie van banken en overheden tegen te gaan. Redding van grote banken bleef een nationale aangelegenheid. Bovendien werd er vanuit Europa, vooral onder impuls van Duitsland, een politiek uitgestippeld van besparingen. Hierdoor werd de economische crisis in perifere landen alleen maar versterkt. Gezamenlijke actie tegen de systeemcrisis lijkt de beste remedie. Het was beter dat zwakkere landen konden genieten van een Europees, gecoördineerd expansief fiscaal beleid: “The boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity at the Treasury” (Keynes, 1937, p. 4).

Dus, de besparingsdrift kan in vraag worden gesteld en leidt mogelijk tot een vernauwing van de sociale en politieke steun voor de EMU in zijn huidige vorm. Bovendien lag de euro, met zijn institutionele gebreken, mee aan de basis van de Ierse crisis. Er is dan ook noodzaak aan de verdere uitbouw van de EMU als fiscale en politieke unie onder het motto “The euro is irreversible” (Draghi, 2012). Al zullen politieke en culturele verschillen een grote uitdaging blijven om tot compromissen te komen.

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Universiteit of Hogeschool
Master of Science handelsingenieur
Publicatiejaar
2013
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