Het ‘Nieuwe Denken’ in het Chinese buitenlandse beleid? Constanten, determinanten en discontinuïteit in het buitenlandse beleid van de Chinese Volksrepubliek, 1989-2004.

Thijs Van de Graaf
Persbericht

Het ‘Nieuwe Denken’ in het Chinese buitenlandse beleid? Constanten, determinanten en discontinuïteit in het buitenlandse beleid van de Chinese Volksrepubliek, 1989-2004.

Het ‘Nieuwe Denken’ in het Chinese buitenlandse beleid? – Thijs Van de Graaf

 

De metamorfose die de Chinese samenleving de voorbije halve eeuw heeft ondergaan, is indrukwekkend. Van een communistische heilstaat waarin roerganger Mao iedereen een ‘ijzeren rijstkom’ garandeerde, is het land uitgegroeid tot het grootste neokapitalistische Wirtschaftswunder uit de moderne geschiedenis. Voor het eerst sinds de jaren vijftig, wanneer de Rode Boekjes in het westers straatbeeld opdoken, spreekt de Volksrepubliek vandaag weer écht tot de populaire verbeelding.

 

Het Chinese ‘economisch mirakel’ lokt echter niet alleen bewondering uit, maar ook angst en ongerustheid. In het verleden leidde de opkomst van een nieuwe grootmacht immers menig maal tot een groot conflict. Denk maar aan de opkomst van Duitsland op het einde van de negentiende eeuw en van Japan vóór de Tweede Wereldoorlog. De hamvraag is: zal de opkomst van China dit patroon volgen of doorbreken? Deze vraag kan het best worden beantwoord door een blik te werpen op de evolutie van het Chinese buitenlandse beleid. Wie die oefening maakt, zal merken dat er in de loop van de jaren negentig een aantal incrementele maar verbazingwekkende verschuivingen in dat buitenlandse beleid zijn opgetreden, die nog maar recent door enkele waarnemers zijn opgemerkt.

 

Dé grote ‘volta’ in de buitenlandse politiek van de Volksrepubliek was natuurlijk de lancering van de ‘hervormings- en opendeurpolitiek’ door Deng Xiaoping. Waar Mao voorheen een revolutionaire buitenlandse koers voerde, gericht op het omverwerpen van het internationale systeem, gooide Deng het roer volledig om. China ging zich nu inschakelen in dat systeem en werd lid van een aantal internationale economische instellingen als de Wereldbank en het IMF. Gaandeweg begon Peking zich te onttrekken van zijn isolatie uit het Mao-tijdperk.

 

Maar Dengs transformatie was slechts partieel en de Chinese deelname aan internationale organisaties bleef zeer beperkt tijdens zijn ambtstermijn. In die organisaties nam Peking daarenboven gretig de rechten en privileges van een grootmacht op, zonder de bijhorende plichten en verantwoordelijkheden. Verder bleef onder Deng het besluitvormingsproces heel gecentraliseerd en het Chinese corps diplomatique niet getraind en onervaren. Mede als gevolg hiervan was de eigenlijke inhoud van het buitenlandse beleid vaak ontoegankelijk en vaag.

 

Een aantal gebeurtenissen en trends zouden Peking bovendien internationaal in een negatief daglicht plaatsen. Door het einde van de Koude Oorlog en vooral de implosie van de Sovjet-Unie werd China strategisch minder belangrijk voor het Westen. Dat het Tiananmendrama de Volksrepubliek in een diplomatiek isolement duwde, was hier een indicatie van. De aanhoudende economische groeicijfers en de opeenvolgende verhogingen van de Chinese defensiebudgetten voedden intussen de perceptie dat een nieuwe grootmacht was opgestaan. De Taiwancrisis van 1995-1996, ten slotte, overtuigde vele waarnemers van de kwaadaardige intenties van dit nieuwe machtscentrum.

 

Vandaag is de situatie dramatisch verbeterd. In tal van regionale en mondiale aangelegenheden wordt China geprezen om zijn meer actieve en constructieve houding. In tegenstelling tot een decennium geleden ageert ’s werelds dichtstbevolkte land nu grotendeels binnen het internationale systeem. De besluitvorming inzake buitenlands beleid verloopt nu meer geïnstitutionaliseerd en de Chinese diplomaten zijn beter opgeleid, veelal aan gerenommeerde buitenlandse universiteiten.

 

De recentere transformatie startte ergens aan het einde van de jaren tachtig, wanneer de Chinese autoriteiten een diplomatiek normaliseringsbeleid op de sporen zetten. Tussen 1988 en 1994 normaliseerde of vestigde China bilaterale betrekkingen met achttien landen en met alle sovjet-opvolgersstaten. Sedertdien werden aloude territoriale disputen met verschillende buurlanden door onderhandelingen opgelost. Herhaaldelijk lieten de Chinese leiders voorstellen horen voor regionale samenwerking en vertrouwenwekkende maatregelen. Zo stelden ze voor om de soevereiniteitsdisputen over de eilanden in de Zuid-Chinese Zee te begraven en de olie- en gasvoorraden in het betwiste gebied gezamenlijk te exploiteren.

 

Vanaf de tweede helft van de jaren negentig kwam deze Politiek van Goednabuurschap in een stroomversnelling. Terwijl China zijn participatie in allerhande mondiale regimes (handel, milieu, mensenrechten, wapenbeheersing en ontwapening, …) verdiepte, liet het ook zijn vroegere aversie tegenover regionale multilaterale instituties varen. Zo was China in 1994 een stichtend lid van het ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), het allereerste Oost-Aziatische multilaterale veiligheidskader. In Centraal-Azië zag op Chinees initiatief de eerste multilaterale groep in de regio het levenslicht, de Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

 

Gaandeweg wist China aldus de ongerustheid over zijn groeiende macht te neutraliseren. De Aziatische financiële crisis van 1997-1998 vormde hierbij een belangrijk keerpunt. China weerstond toen niet enkel aan de druk om zijn munt te devalueren, het droeg tevens 4 miljard dollar bij aan de IMF-reddingsoperatie van Thailand, Indonesië en Zuid-Korea. In Azië werd Peking voortaan minder beschouwd als een ‘gevaar’ en meer als een leider.

 

De laatste jaren floreren de economische, politieke en zelfs militaire betrekkingen tussen China en Azië als nooit tevoren. Op voorstel van China zal tegen 2010 een vrijhandelszone worden opgericht in Zuidoost-Azië. Met vroegere aartsvijanden als Indië, Rusland, Zuid-Korea en Vietnam smeedt Peking vandaag partnerschappen. Zelfs daar waar er nog spanningen zijn (Taiwan en Japan), is de harde retoriek bij alle partijen in hoofdzaak bedoeld voor binnenlandse consumptie en zijn de Chinese leiders zich bewust van de noodzaak van het behoud van stabiliteit. Ook in de Noord-Koreaanse nucleaire kwestie, waarin China optreedt als gastheer voor het zeslandenoverleg, onderstreept Peking het belang dat het heeft bij het regionale status-quo. De trend die zich aftekent is onmiskenbaar: China wint aan invloed in zijn periferie, maar het doet dat allerminst langs militaristische weg.

 

Hu Jintao, momenteel de hoogste politieke leider in China, formuleerde bij zijn aantreden in 2003 een nieuw raamwerk voor de diplomatie: China’s ‘Vreedzame Ontwikkeling’. De onderliggende filosofie is dezelfde als bij Gorbatsjovs ‘Nieuwe Denken’, dat destijds de sovjetrussische buitenlandse politiek compleet transformeerde. Door het afzwakken van de externe bedreiging wil Hu de politieke ademruimte creëren om zich volledig toe te wijden aan de herstructurering van de binnenlandse economie. Het is dit eenvoudig schemaatje dat ervoor heeft gezorgd dat waar de Volksrepubliek in de jaren vijftig nog een exporteur was van wapens en revolutie, het vandaag een exporteur is geworden van consumptiegoederen en goodwill. Zodoende vormt China het bewijs dat de opkomst van een nieuwe grootmacht niet noodzakelijk hoeft te leiden tot een militaire clash.

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MEDEIROS, Evan S., FRAVEL, M. Taylor, China’s new diplomacy. In: Foreign Affairs, 82, 2003, 6, pp. 22-35

 

MEN, Jing, GEERAERTS, Gustaaf, China’s rise and Northeast Asian security. In: Studia Diplomatica, LVI, 2003, 6, pp. 33-51

 

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NATHAN, Andrew J., China’s goals in the Taiwan Strait. In: The China Journal, 36, 1996, pp. 87-93

 

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NG-QUINN, Michael, The Analytic Study of Chinese Foreign Policy. In: International Studies Quarterly, 27,1983, pp. 203-24

 

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NYE, Joseph S. Jr., China’s Re-emergence and the Future of the Asia-Pacific. In: Survival, 39, 1997-1998, 4, pp. 65-79

 

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SEGAL, Gerald, Does China Matter? In: Foreign Affairs, 78, 1999, 5, pp. 25-36

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4. Rapporten, encyclopedieën, cursussen en ongepubliceerde proefschriften

BARNES, Joe, Slaying the China dragon: the new China threat school. Paper prepared in conjunction with an energy study sponsored by the Center for International Political Economy and the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy. Rice University, april 1999, 30 pp.

 

COOLSAET, Rik, KLEIJSEN, Jeroen, Theorie van de Internationale Betrekkingen. Onuitgegeven cursus. Gent, Vakgroep Politieke Wetenschappen, 2003-2004, 249 pp.

 

COOLSAET, Rik, Actuele vraagstukken van de internationale politiek. Onuitgegeven cursus. Gent, Vakgroep Politieke Wetenschappen, 2004-2005, 117 pp.

 

DE ZUTTER, Elisabeth, De Engelse school in de internationale betrekkingen: een inleiding. Onuitgegeven paper. Gent, Vakgroep Politieke Wetenschappen, 2003, 8 pp.

 

DOOM, Ruddy, Treurlied op de Gele Rivier: conflict en ontwikkeling in China. Onuitgegeven cursus. Gent, Vakgroep Studie van de Derde Wereld, 2004-2005, 277 pp.

 

GOMPERT, David C., GODEMENT, François, MEDEIROS, Evan S., MULVENON, James C., China on the move : a Franco-American analysis of emerging Chinese strategic policies and their consequences for transatlantic relations. Conference Proceedings. Santa Monica, RAND, 2005, 55 pp.

 

HARRIS, Stuart, The PRC’s quest for great power status: a long and winding road. Working Paper 1998/4. Canberra, Department of International Relations of the Australian National University, 1998, 21 pp.

 

HUFBAUER, Gary C., WONG, Yee, China bashing 2004. Policy Brief Nr. PB04-5. Washington, Institute for International Economics, sept. 2004, 53 pp.

 

KELLNER, Thierry, La Chine et la nouvelle Asie Centrale: de l’indépendence des républiques centrasiatiques à l’après-11 Septembre. Brussel, Rapport du GRIP, 2002, 39 pp.

 

MEN, Jing, Converging to the international society? An analysis of Chinese foreign policy from 1949 to 2002.

 

Doctoraal proefschrift. Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Vakgroep Politieke Wetenschappen, 2004, 2dln., 387 pp.

 

PRASAD, Eswar, RUMBAUGH, Thomas, Overview. IN: PRASAD, Eswar, (ed.), China’s growth and integration into the world economy. Prospects and challenges. Occasional Paper nr. 232. Washington, IMF, 2004, 66 pp.

 

ZHANG, Tiejun, Reconstructing the Great Wall: Chinese security strategy in the early 21st century. Doctoraal proefschrift. Göteborg, Göteborg University, Department of Peace and Development Research, 2003, 224 pp.

 

WORLD BANK, World Development Report 1996: from plan to market. New York, Oxford University Press, 1996, 256 pp.

 

5. Dag- en weekbladen

• Asia Times

• China Brief

• China Business Review

• The Economist

• Far Eastern Economic Review

• The Financial Times

• Guardian

• International Herald Tribune

• Knack

• Le Monde Diplomatique

• Newsweek

• New York Times

• People’s Daily (Renmin Ribao)

• South China Morning Post

• De Standaard

• Straits Times

• Taipei Times

• De Tijd

• Time

• Washington Post

 

6. Internet

• ASEAN Secretariat (www.aseansec.org). Dit is de officiële homepage van ASEAN.

• Asia-Pacific Centre for Security Studies (www.apcss.org). APCSS is een regionaal studie-, conferentie- en onderzoekscentrum verbonden aan het Amerikaanse Ministerie van Defensie en gevestigd in Honolulu (Hawaï). Het centrum werd opgericht om voort te bouwen op de bilaterale banden tussen de U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) en de strijdkrachten van de landen in de regio van de Stille Zuidzee, door te focussen op een bredere multilaterale benadering van de regionale veiligheidsomgeving.

• BBC News (http://news.bbc.co.uk)

• The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (http://www.ceip.org/). CEIP is een private, non-profit organisatie dat onderzoek uitvoert naar een hele waaier aan thema’s inzake internationale betrekkingen. Hun belangrijkste publicatie is het tijdschrift Foreign Policy.

• China Leadership Monitor (www.chinaleadershipmonitor.org). Op de CLM-website worden vier keer per jaar analyses gepubliceerd van toonaangevende auteurs over actuele trends in de Chinese elite, binnenlandse aangelegenheden en buitenlandse politiek. De website wordt gesponsord door de Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace van Stanford University. De hoofdeditor is Prof. Dr. H. Lyman Miller.

• Jamestown Foundation (www.jamestown.org). De Jamestown Foundation voert onderzoek naar ‘de gebeurtenissen en trends in samenlevingen die tactisch of strategisch van belang zijn voor de Verenigde Staten’. Op de website van deze organisatie verschijnt een tweewekelijkse onlinepublicatie genaamd China Brief, waarin onder de supervisie van Prof. Dr. Arthur Waldron (University of Pennsylvania) algemene politieke ontwikkelingen in China onder de loep worden genomen.

• Harvard University (http://www.fas.harvard.edu).

• Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies (http://www.ntu.edu.sg/idss/). Het IDSS is een autonoom onderzoekscentrum binnen de Nanyang Technological University uit Singapore en voert onderzoek uit naar internationale strategische en  veiligheidskwesties.

• IMF, World economic outlook database, sept. 2004

(http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/data/index.htm). Op de officiële site van het International Monetary Fund wordt regelmatig de WEO-database geactualiseerd.

• Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken van de Volksrepubliek China (http://www.fmprc.gov.cn)

• National Bureau of Asian Research (www.nbr.org). NBR is een onpartijdige onderzoeksinstelling zonder winstoogmerk. Het onderzoek spitst zich toe op de Amerikaanse belangen inzake veiligheidskwesties en mondialisering in de Asia-Pacific. Deze onderwerpen primeren ook in de publicatie NBR Analysis, dat vijf keer per jaar op de website verschijnt.

• National Defense University (www.ndu.edu).

• RAND Corporation (www.rand.org). RAND Corporation is een onafhankelijke organisatie zonder winstoogmerk die onderzoek uitvoert in opdracht van publieke en private instanties, maar ook op eigen initiatief. Haar onderzoeksveld bestrijkt een heel spectrum van domeinen, gaande van (Amerikaanse) defensie en internationale betrekkingen, over regionale studies, tot onderwijs en gezondheidszorg.

 

Universiteit of Hogeschool
Politieke Wetenschappen, internationale betrekkingen
Publicatiejaar
2005
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